Fri, Feb 12, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 013 | 26 | 00 | 330 |
| TBL | 09 | 211 | 17 | 11 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:40NSHMike FisherAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:22TBLJT BrownAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 10:07TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Ben Bishop · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 4:01NSHJames NealAssists: Roman Josi, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 7:46NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:33TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:04TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:47NSHCody Bass: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:25TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 19:31TBLRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:08NSHRyan Ellis: Holding2 min
- P3 17:36NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Gaustad – Bass – Salomaki6:45
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson10:18
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:45
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen11:19
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi20:37
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm17:33
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Jackman – Bitetto11:50
xG 0.12–0.70 (14%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Brown13:30
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov10:17
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Boyle – Condra – Paquette9:10
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Namestnikov13:22
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr10:44
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman6:38
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov7:47
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).