Fri, Feb 12, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 1, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 011 | 15 | 127 |
| ARI | 17 | 216 | 112 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31ARIShane DoanAssists: Kevin Connauton, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:51ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Michael Stone, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:44ARIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
- P3 10:43CGYJoe ColborneAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 17:32ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 1:55CGYMicheal Ferland: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 1:55ARIMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:52CGYKris Russell: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:03ARIKyle Chipchura: Holding2 min
- P1 13:03CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:49ARIMartin Hanzal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:40ARIKevin Connauton: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:27CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07ARIAnthony Duclair: Interference2 min
- P2 6:47CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:28CGYJosh Jooris: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:28ARIBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:45ARIMikkel Boedker: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:26ARIMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:25CGYSam Bennett: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:52CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:07ARIMichael Stone: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:35CGYMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 16:54CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan4:36
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett3:41
xG 0.06–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Bennett2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Gaudreau – Jooris2:32
xG 0.01–0.02 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Hamilton7:18
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie9:21
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Smid10:39
xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Boedker – Martinook6:13
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Rieder8:04
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi7:32
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Stone6:53
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Connauton2:23
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck7:53
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).