Sat, Feb 13, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 5, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 17 | 29 | 528 |
| FLA | 010 | 06 | 06 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18NSHCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: James Neal, Anthony Bitetto · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 8:24NSHMiikka SalomakiAssists: Austin Watson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 10:24NSHJames NealPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 7:59NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 13:48NSHCalle JarnkrokSHAssists: Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:23NSHRyan Johansen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:07NSHPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30FLAReilly Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:13FLAGarrett Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:13NSHBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:13NSHBarret Jackman: Holding2 min
- P3 6:20FLABrian Campbell: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:07NSHBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:39FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 17:39FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 0:00NSHAnthony Bitetto: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Watson – Salomaki9:26
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen13:06
xG 0.35–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:09
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson9:36
xG 0.30–0.71 (30%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm14:47
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi17:04
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Jackman – Bitetto11:26
xG 0.07–0.88 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Pirri – Trocheck4:41
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck5:36
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Bjugstad2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Shaw6:14
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic10:28
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad10:58
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Petrovic4:55
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).