Sat, Feb 13, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 210 | 19 | 326 |
| CAR | 116 | 512 | 03 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:22CARRiley NashAssists: Jay McClement · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:19CARNoah HanifinAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 9:34CARKris VersteegAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 10:54CARAndrej NestrasilGWGAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 13:46NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 15:20NYINick LeddyPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 18:37CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
- P2 19:58CARVictor RaskAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–6
- P3 6:49NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.08 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:10NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:11CARJohn-Michael Liles: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34CARJoakim Nordstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:21NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:05CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Nelson4:13
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares8:51
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Lee3:31
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Tavares – Strome6:01
xG 0.21–0.12 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Hickey12:42
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:11
xG 0.98–0.74 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Hamonic – de Haan15:44
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Terry – Nash5:35
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:04
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Staal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe13:37
xG 0.14–0.36 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm12:21
xG 0.53–1.00 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin16:18
xG 1.13–0.64 (64%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Liles – Pesce18:29
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Jordan – Hanifin13:09
xG 0.38–1.22 (24%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).