Sun, Feb 14, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 111 | 013 | 135 |
| BUF | 38 | 07 | 16 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02BUFJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:42BUFEvander KaneGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 17:14BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jake McCabe · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 2:35COLErik JohnsonAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Jarome Iginla · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:10BUFMarcus FolignoENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:37COLMatt Duchene: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:34BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:00BUFBrian Gionta: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:42COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:49BUFJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:13COLMatt Duchene: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:37BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:38BUFJosh Gorges: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Grigorenko3:40
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog6:58
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Grigorenko – MacKinnon4:25
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McLeod – Wagner – Martinsen5:16
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie11:59
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 0–2
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras8:41
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson13:43
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Bailey – Eichel6:11
xG 0.43–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Girgensons6:06
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Deslauriers2:35
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart9:00
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen15:02
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Bogosian – McCabe13:07
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Franson – Pysyk11:28
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).