Sun, Feb 14, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 06 | 17 | 122 |
| NYR | 19 | 012 | 29 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Keith Yandle, Dan Girardi · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 10:34NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 13:54NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 19:50PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:39PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:39NYRDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:59PHIRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:59NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14PHIChris VandeVelde: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:14NYRMats Zuccarello: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:39PHIMark Streit: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:53NYRMats Zuccarello: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:11PHINick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:45NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:17NYRDylan McIlrath: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:15PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:42PHIRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:35PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:35NYRKevin Klein: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:18NYRTanner Glass: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cousins won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Simmonds6:46
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Cousins – Raffl5:47
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton2:47
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare5:19
xG 0.06–0.56 (10%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Medvedev2:37
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz7:17
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – Medvedev10:35
xG 0.59–0.65 (47%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:31
xG 0.95–0.46 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes5:51
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Moore – Paille – Glass5:45
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Fast – Miller10:20
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Girardi8:55
xG 0.72–0.45 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Boyle – McIlrath5:16
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle2:23
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).