Mon, Feb 15, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 6, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 214 | 39 | 15 | 628 |
| CGY | 311 | 113 | 013 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 9:59ANAHampus LindholmPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:22CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 13:48ANAMike SantorelliAssists: Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P1 17:05CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 2:15ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–3
- P2 3:20ANASami VatanenPPAssists: David Perron, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
- P2 12:18ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Simon Despres · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P2 19:53CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–4
- P3 0:51ANAMike SantorelliAssists: Ryan Kesler, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.38 xG6–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:48ANAPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:09ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:43CGYMicheal Ferland: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:19ANADavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 19:13ANARyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:13CGYJiri Hudler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:21CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:09CGYJakub Nakladal: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52ANAKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:59
xG 0.88–0.76 (54%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
- Getzlaf – Santorelli – Perron7:55
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Maroon – Garbutt8:32
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Rakell – Ritchie10:30
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm16:20
xG 0.93–0.49 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Despres – Vatanen11:35
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Bieksa – Fowler15:50
xG 0.24–0.64 (28%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Bennett11:57
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Colborne – Ferland – Granlund7:41
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:32
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Bouma – Bollig – Jooris7:28
xG 0.02–0.67 (2%)attempts 1–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie17:38
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Engelland – Smid2:36
xG 0.17–0.06 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Smid – Nakladal6:25
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).