Wed, Feb 17, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 29 | 211 | 14 | 524 |
| CGY | 010 | 211 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:22MINErik HaulaAssists: Jason Pominville, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:34MINJason ZuckerSHAssists: Nate Prosser · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 3:09MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 11:28CGYDeryk EngellandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 16:38CGYDavid JonesAssists: Matt Stajan, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 18:16MINJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Erik Haula, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 15:49CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 19:17MINCharlie CoyleENAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.63 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:01MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:08CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:58CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:38CGYMarkus Granlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:33MINErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00MINNate Prosser: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:39MINRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:54MINJason Pominville: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter8:31
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine7:48
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Zucker – Granlund7:59
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle9:48
xG 0.06–0.34 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Folin4:35
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba2:30
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Reilly – Folin5:07
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:38
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett8:51
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Colborne – Granlund – Jooris5:57
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Ferland7:26
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Hamilton9:21
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie12:53
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Nakladal4:04
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).