Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Washington Capitals 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 214 | 010 | 12 | 335 |
| NYI | 19 | 04 | 18 | 01 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:41NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:25WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:52WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 18:16NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kyle Okposo, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
- OT 4:16WSHJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: John Carlson, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:19WSHAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P1 16:23NYINikolay Kulemin: Holding2 min
- P2 2:18NYICal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:36NYIThomas Hickey: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:36WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:14WSHBrooks Laich: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:48NYIRyan Strome: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:51NYIThomas Greiss: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:37WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:37NYITravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:01NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov10:50
xG 1.07–0.49 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Laich – Richards – Latta5:57
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky7:56
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson9:29
xG 0.16–0.62 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Schmidt10:23
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Orpik – Niskanen2:44
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson3:19
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Kulemin8:45
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:30
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson8:57
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Tavares – Strome11:57
xG 0.21–0.78 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Leddy13:36
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Strait – Hamonic13:22
xG 0.76–0.86 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey9:50
xG 0.13–0.28 (33%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).