Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 113 | 011 | 232 |
| OTT | 17 | 16 | 29 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: Curtis Lazar, Nick Paul · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:37CARJordan StaalAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, John-Michael Liles · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:39OTTZack SmithAssists: Chris Neil, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 18:17CARRiley NashPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 3:50OTTCody CeciGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:59OTTMark StoneENAssists: Erik Karlsson, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:03OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36CARAndrej Nestrasil: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:16CARJay McClement: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:02OTTCody Ceci: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:15CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:59CARKris Versteeg: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe13:48
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:29
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom9:06
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- McClement – Terry – Nash5:36
xG 0.04–0.51 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Pesce15:52
xG 0.91–0.36 (72%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Slavin15:20
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Jordan – Hanifin11:41
xG 0.45–0.91 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Paul – Lazar6:33
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Ryan – Dzingel – Zibanejad8:40
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Pageau9:08
xG 0.06–0.28 (17%)attempts 4–13goals 2–1
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone11:01
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Wideman9:31
xG 1.17–0.10 (92%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci11:01
xG 0.24–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Methot – Ceci2:11
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).