Skip to content
Ice Lab

Left wing · #20

Nick Paul

Ottawa Senators Tampa Bay Lightning Toronto Maple Leafs(traded during the season)
Age
31
Shoots
Left
Height
191 cm
Weight
102 kg
Born
Mississauga, CAN
Draft
2013, round 4, #101 (DAL)

Career · 2015–16 to 2026–27

Games
542
Goals
105
Points
216
TOI per game
15:22
xGF% (5v5)
48.4%
Goals above expected
−5.0
ShowAll teamsOttawa SenatorsTampa Bay LightningToronto Maple Leafs

Season by season

The regular-season line for each season, with the total, by team for traded players.

2015–16OTT24235−312:12287.1%02.247.1%
2016–17OTT1000−216:2940.0%00.466.4%
2017–18OTT11101−47:54119.1%00.451.1%
2018–19OTT20112−108:28303.3%02.849.4%
2019–20OTT5691120014:271038.7%110.448.1%
2020–21OTT5651520+516:051054.8%29.946.1%
2021–22OTT5911718−1817:221318.4%212.647.0%
2021–22TBL215914+414:063514.3%04.851.7%
2021–22All teams80161632−1416:311669.6%217.448.1%
2022–23TBL80171532+1116:1012014.2%416.849.1%
2023–24TBL82242246−1617:1615315.7%1421.148.8%
2024–25TBL76221941+1316:2714115.6%518.248.3%
2025–26TBL517815−1513:416810.3%39.348.2%
2026–27TOR5112−315:46714.3%01.253.6%
Total3 teams542105111216−3815:2293611.2%31110.048.4%

Form

Rolling averages smooth out single games so the trend shows.

Form, ten-game rolling

Points and individual expected goals per game (left scale), averaged over the previous ten games. Ice time is on the second chart.

Points per gameixG per gameTOI per game (minutes)
00.20.40.60.811.2100200300400500
10m15m20m100200300400500Game

Player card

Model-based

How 2015–16 to 2026–27 compares with everyone else at the position over the same seasons, and the players with the most similar profile.

Overall rating

3rd line

57th percentile among qualified forwards, blending scoring 40%, play-driving 40%, usage 20%.

  1. 1st line
  2. 2nd line
  3. 3rd line
  4. 4th line
  5. Extra / AHL

Scoring

3rd line
  • Goals /600.7662nd pct
  • Assists /600.8044th pct
  • ixG /600.7966th pct
  • Goals above expected−5.027th pct

Play-driving

3rd line
  • xGF% (5v5)48.4%45th pct
  • CF% (5v5)49.8%63rd pct
  • Relative xGF%−2.236th pct
  • Penalty diff /600.1357th pct

Usage

2nd line
  • TOI per game15:2274th pct
  • PP time share22.9%57th pct
  • Offensive zone starts45.1%27th pct
  • Quality of competition24.4%65th pct

Percentiles among forwards with 200+ minutes at 5-on-5 and 20+ games. Ratings rank each column's average percentile among the same players and read it as a role on a depth chart (how).

Most similar players this season

  1. Lars EllerMTL/WSH/PIT/OTT0.79
  2. Ryan KeslerANA0.75
  3. Pius SuterDET/VAN/STL0.75
  4. Patrik BerglundSTL/BUF0.74
  5. Jean-Gabriel PageauOTT/NYI0.74
  6. Boone JennerCBJ0.72

Faceoffs

How often Paul wins the draw over 2015–16 to 2026–27, against whom and where, and what a win leads to. Ranked among players with 2154+ draws over the same seasons.

Win rate

52.2%

2626–2406 · #66 of 209 regulars, 69th percentile

Against an average centre

52.7%

Opponents won 50.5% of their draws; an average centre would have won 49.5% against them.

Wins above average

+135

Draws won beyond what an average centre facing the same opponents would have won.

Draws per game

9.8

5,032 draws in all.

By dot, attacking to the right

55%963 · +0.555%1238 · +2.242%337 · +0.954%155 · +0.543%131 · +0.256%160 · −0.252%99 · −0.253%1216 · +2.147%733 · +1.7Attacking zone →← Defending zone

Win rate at each dot; the small numbers are draws and the xG swing (×100) of winning rather than losing there.

By zone

  • Offensive zone52.6% 829–746
  • Neutral zone53.4% 806–702
  • Defensive zone50.8% 991–958

By strength

  • Even strength52.6% 2075–1868
  • Power play55.3% 277–224
  • Shorthanded46.6% 273–313

What a win leads to

Shot attempts in the next 20 seconds, for minus against, per 100 draws: +13 after a win, −16 after a loss. Each win was worth 1.5 expected goals per 100 draws more than a loss.

Most-faced opponents

Season by season

SeasonDrawsWin rateAgainst average
2015–166051.7%50.5%
2016–171338.5%34.5%
2017–18425.0%23.8%
2018–193545.7%45.1%
2019–2037351.2%51.6%
2020–2142052.1%53.0%
2021–2284550.4%50.9%
2022–2392153.7%53.9%
2023–2497854.3%54.8%
2024–2578650.0%50.6%
2025–2655753.9%54.9%
2026–274045.0%46.1%

Finishing

Model-based

Did the goals match the chances?

Goals against expected goals

Cumulative goals (solid) and individual xG (dashed) through the season. The gap is finishing: above the dashed line, the player scored more than an average shooter would from the same chances.

−5.0 goals above expected

020406080100120100200300400500Game

Goals above expected, everyone at the same position with 20+ games

−500+50+100

Speed and tracking

From the NHL's EDGE tracking system (2021–22 on): skating speed, shot speed, distance and zone time, for the selected seasons and then every tracked season, to show improvement or decline.

Tracking data (NHL EDGE)

Values from the NHL's puck and player tracking, with the NHL's own league percentile for each. Missing values mean the player wasn't tracked enough.

Tracking

  • Top skating speed34.2 km/h49th pct
  • Speed bursts over 20 mph447th pct
  • Hardest shot96.8 km/h11th pct
  • Distance skated16 km80th pct
  • Offensive-zone time40.3%40th pct
Tracking, season by season

Each season against the other forwards that season with 20+ games. A season in progress appears once half its games are played, as provisional: season bests only grow. Bursts and distance are per 60 minutes of ice time, so seasons with fewer games still compare. Percentiles are on these rates, so they can differ from the NHL's, which are on season totals.

This playerMedian forwardMiddle half (25th–75th percentile)Hollow dot: too few games to rank, or a season in progress (*, dashed). Dotted line: no NHL games that season.

Top skating speed

36.2 km/h55th pct

▼ −0.6 km/h since 2024–25

3535.53636.53737.521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 35.8 km/h, 43rd percentile (80 games)2022–23: 36.5 km/h, 69th percentile (80 games)2023–24: 36.0 km/h, 50th percentile (82 games)2024–25: 36.8 km/h, 72nd percentile (76 games)2025–26: 36.2 km/h, 55th percentile (51 games)

Bursts over 20 mph per 60

5.855th pct

▲ +1.1 since 2024–25

24681021–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 5.3, 52nd percentile (80 games)2022–23: 4.5, 45th percentile (80 games)2023–24: 4.1, 38th percentile (82 games)2024–25: 4.7, 44th percentile (76 games)2025–26: 5.8, 55th percentile (51 games)

Distance skated per 60

15.5 km50th pct

▼ −0.0 km since 2024–25

14.51515.51616.521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 15.0 km, 19th percentile (80 games)2022–23: 15.5 km, 57th percentile (80 games)2023–24: 14.8 km, 13th percentile (82 games)2024–25: 15.5 km, 43rd percentile (76 games)2025–26: 15.5 km, 50th percentile (51 games)

Hardest shot

133.5 km/h24th pct

▼ −13.4 km/h since 2024–25

13013514014515015521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 152.6 km/h, 86th percentile (80 games)2022–23: 147.0 km/h, 68th percentile (80 games)2023–24: 146.8 km/h, 71st percentile (82 games)2024–25: 146.9 km/h, 80th percentile (76 games)2025–26: 133.5 km/h, 24th percentile (51 games)

Offensive-zone time

42.2%55th pct

▲ +0.5 points since 2024–25

38%40%42%44%46%21–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 39.7%, 26th percentile (80 games)2022–23: 41.2%, 42nd percentile (80 games)2023–24: 44.6%, 80th percentile (82 games)2024–25: 41.7%, 47th percentile (76 games)2025–26: 42.2%, 55th percentile (51 games)