Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 013 | 19 | 415 | 04 | 1 | 541 |
| TBL | 38 | 08 | 28 | 02 | 2 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:38TBLVictor HedmanAssists: JT Brown · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:52TBLJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 19:39TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 13:45WPGTyler MyersAssists: Anthony Peluso, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 2:00TBLAlex KillornAssists: Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 6:01WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 7:33WPGAndrew LaddSHAssists: Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 12:44WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 14:40WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–4
- P3 15:04TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. TBL Ryan Callahan scored
- 3. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 5. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 6. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 7. WPG Drew Stafford stopped
- 8. TBL Ondrej Palat stopped
- 9. WPG Nikolaj Ehlers stopped
- 10. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:09TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P2 1:56WPGMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min
- P2 5:07TBLSlater Koekkoek: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:04WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:04TBLAnton Stralman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:04WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:04WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Bench2 min
- P3 0:00WPGMichael Hutchinson: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 4:07TBLJT Brown: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32WPGAnthony Peluso: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:11TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 14:11WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:11TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:14WPGJacob Trouba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Burmistrov6:09
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Perreault – Ehlers4:08
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers8:36
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Lowry2:46
xG 0.01–0.09 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:15
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Postma – Chiarot9:00
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Myers – Trouba17:48
xG 0.43–0.82 (34%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Killorn – Stamkos10:57
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:34
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette9:30
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Sustr9:27
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek7:08
xG 0.26–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman11:47
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).