Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 3, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 111 | 117 | 339 |
| ARI | 018 | 316 | 38 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38DALTyler SeguinAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:33ARIMax DomiAssists: Anthony Duclair, Martin Hanzal · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 13:02DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 13:53ARIMichael StoneAssists: Max Domi, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:26ARIMax DomiAssists: Anthony Duclair, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 7:20ARIMartin HanzalPPGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.41 xG2–4
- P3 8:33DALAles HemskyAssists: Johnny Oduya, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–4
- P3 9:14ARITyler GaudetAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Klas Dahlbeck · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 18:14ARIAntoine VermetteENAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:59DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:49ARIMartin Hanzal: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:34DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:20DALJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:07ARIKyle Chipchura: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:15DALJason Demers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:34ARIMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Janmark4:19
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour4:48
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Eaves – Roussel – Eakin3:23
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Nichushkin2:31
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Benn5:18
xG 0.69–0.06 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Demers – Nemeth4:40
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers8:27
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Duclair – Domi12:20
xG 1.30–0.56 (70%)attempts 23–11goals 3–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Martinook5:04
xG 0.40–0.33 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Rieder5:55
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Chipchura – Tikhonov – Gaudet9:25
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy16:31
xG 1.61–0.58 (74%)attempts 25–14goals 3–1
- Stone – Connauton15:34
xG 0.42–1.28 (25%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck14:43
xG 0.06–1.10 (5%)attempts 4–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).