Sat, Feb 20, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 26 | 05 | 420 |
| PIT | 017 | 29 | 013 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:08TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 11:20TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 3:14TBLMatt CarleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 5:35PITTom KuhnhacklSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 11:53TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 16:01PITScott WilsonAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 12:36PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:07TBLJT Brown: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:07PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00TBLTyler Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:44PITTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:44TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:44PITTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:42TBLOndrej Palat: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:17PITPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:17TBLAndrej Sustr: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:54PITKris Letang: Illegal stick2 min
- P3 11:54PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:36TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov8:16
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos7:30
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Boyle – Namestnikov – Marchessault5:44
xG 0.03–0.18 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette8:18
xG 0.15–0.37 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Sustr11:22
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Coburn – Hedman3:07
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Koekkoek2:57
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Hagelin6:05
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Porter – Wilson – Sheary7:43
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel5:19
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Hagelin3:44
xG 0.04–0.02 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin2:39
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Pouliot2:54
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Daley – Dumoulin8:19
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).