Sat, Feb 20, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 212 | 111 | 14 | 11 | 528 |
| TOR | 15 | 18 | 211 | 00 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29TORShawn MatthiasAssists: Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:56PHISam GagnerAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:35PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Scott Laughton, Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.43 xG2–1
- P2 0:57PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Radko Gudas, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 11:57TORNick SpalingAssists: Nazem Kadri, Roman Polak · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 3:16TORPeter HollandAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 4:32TORByron FroeseAssists: Rich Clune, Brad Boyes · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 5:04PHIMatt ReadAssists: Michael Raffl, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 0:29PHIShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.20 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:05PHIRyan White: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:04PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:17TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cousins won the faceoff against Arcobello
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Laughton – Raffl10:51
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Gagner – Simmonds – Schenn13:21
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Umberger – Voracek – Cousins11:17
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare10:50
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz12:32
xG 0.84–0.15 (85%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Gudas – Medvedev13:51
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere15:45
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Clune – Froese9:44
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Winnik – Grabner – Kadri10:09
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Kadri – Holland4:19
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Greening – Arcobello11:52
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:20
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Marincin – Rielly10:17
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Corrado – Loov3:23
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).