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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 20, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Philadelphia Flyers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.

TOR winsPHI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:06Shot by Schultz, saved by Bernier
  3. P1 1:29Goal by Matthias (Spaling)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Winnik, Matthias, Spaling, Marincin, Loov · PHI MacDonald, Read, Laughton, Gostisbehere, Raffl

  4. P1 2:38Shot by Simmonds, saved by Bernier
  5. P1 3:20Shot by Spaling, saved by Mason
  6. P1 4:52Shot by Voracek, saved by Bernier
  7. P1 5:46Shot by MacDonald, saved by Bernier
  8. P1 7:17Shot by Boyes, saved by Mason
  9. P1 8:56Goal by Gagner (Schenn, Simmonds)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Polak, Grabner, Gardiner, Kadri, Holland · PHI Gagner, Simmonds, Schenn, Gudas, Medvedev

  10. P1 9:35Shot by Voracek, saved by Bernier
  11. P1 9:35Goal by Voracek (Laughton, Raffl)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Winnik, Matthias, Spaling, Corrado, Rielly · PHI Streit, Schultz, Voracek, Laughton, Raffl

  12. P1 11:32Shot by Gagner, saved by Bernier
  13. P1 13:32Shot by Simmonds, saved by Bernier
  14. P1 16:11Shot by MacDonald, saved by Bernier
  15. P1 16:31Shot by Simmonds, saved by Bernier
  16. P1 18:19Shot by Gudas, saved by Bernier
  17. P1 18:34Shot by Spaling, saved by Mason
  18. P1 19:06Shot by Kadri, saved by Mason
  19. P1 0:00Period end
  20. P2 0:00Period start
  21. P2 0:57Goal by Schenn (Gudas, Simmonds)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Winnik, Kadri, Arcobello, Corrado, Rielly · PHI Gagner, Simmonds, Schenn, Gudas, Medvedev

  22. P2 2:56Shot by VandeVelde, saved by Reimer
  23. P2 4:46Shot by Simmonds, saved by Reimer
  24. P2 6:07Shot by Laughton, saved by Reimer
  25. P2 6:08Shot by White, saved by Reimer
  26. P2 7:58Shot by Simmonds, saved by Reimer
  27. P2 8:07Shot by Kadri, saved by Mason
  28. P2 8:20Shot by Rielly, saved by Mason
  29. P2 8:29Shot by Marincin, saved by Mason
  30. P2 8:30Shot by Rielly, saved by Mason
  31. P2 10:39Shot by Froese, saved by Mason
  32. P2 11:08Shot by Marincin, saved by Mason
  33. P2 11:57Goal by Spaling (Kadri, Polak)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Winnik, Spaling, Gardiner, Kadri, Rielly · PHI Umberger, Voracek, Gudas, Cousins, Medvedev

  34. P2 12:42Shot by Read, saved by Reimer
  35. P2 13:03Shot by Streit, saved by Reimer
  36. P2 14:05White: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Boyes, Clune, Gardiner, Froese, Corrado · PHI VandeVelde, White, Gudas, Bellemare, Medvedev

  37. P2 15:13Shot by Read, saved by Reimer5v4
  38. P2 17:57Shot by Gudas, saved by Reimer
  39. P2 18:07Shot by Gudas, saved by Reimer
  40. P2 0:00Shot by Grabner, saved by Mason
  41. P2 0:00Period end
  42. P3 0:00Period start
  43. P3 1:04Simmonds: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Polak, Winnik, Grabner, Gardiner, Kadri · PHI Gagner, Simmonds, Schenn, Gudas, Medvedev

  44. P3 3:16Goal by Holland (Kadri)+29 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Polak, Grabner, Kadri, Holland, Rielly · PHI Schultz, VandeVelde, Voracek, Gudas, Cousins

  45. P3 3:58Shot by Kadri, saved by Neuvirth
  46. P3 4:32Goal by Froese (Clune, Boyes)+30 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Boyes, Clune, Froese, Corrado, Loov · PHI Streit, Schultz, VandeVelde, White, Bellemare

  47. P3 5:04Goal by Read (Raffl, Laughton)+30 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Matthias, Spaling, Holland, Marincin, Rielly · PHI MacDonald, Read, Laughton, Gostisbehere, Raffl

  48. P3 5:16Shot by Gardiner, saved by Neuvirth
  49. P3 6:04Shot by Greening, saved by Neuvirth
  50. P3 6:16Shot by Read, saved by Reimer
  51. P3 6:17Rielly: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Winnik, Greening, Arcobello, Rielly, Loov · PHI Streit, Gudas, Read, Laughton, Raffl

  52. P3 9:36Shot by Marincin, saved by Neuvirth
  53. P3 9:58Shot by Greening, saved by Neuvirth
  54. P3 10:09Shot by Arcobello, saved by Neuvirth
  55. P3 10:49Shot by Rielly, saved by Neuvirth
  56. P3 17:38Shot by Simmonds, saved by Reimer
  57. P3 17:45Shot by Umberger, saved by Reimer
  58. P3 18:52Shot by Marincin, saved by Neuvirth
  59. P3 19:23Shot by Parenteau, saved by Neuvirth
  60. P3 0:00Period end
  61. OT 0:00Period start
  62. OT 0:29Goal by Gostisbehere (Voracek)3v3+48 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Kadri, Holland, Rielly · PHI Voracek, Cousins, Gostisbehere

  63. OT 0:29Period end
  64. OT 0:29Final