Sat, Feb 20, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 27 | 08 | 07 | 0 | 231 |
| OTT | 06 | 110 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:46DETAndreas AthanasiouUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:46OTTZack SmithAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:52DETBrad RichardsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 16:09OTTDion PhaneufUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 2. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 4. DET Brad Richards stopped
- 5. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 6. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:33DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:59OTTNick Paul: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:08DETLuke Glendening: Holding2 min
- P2 16:59OTTKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:59DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:14OTTMark Stone: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader12:46
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Richards – Nyquist – Tatar9:21
xG 0.20–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Pulkkinen – Jurco – Athanasiou5:14
xG 0.08–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening11:41
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarchenko – Ouellet11:25
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith2:31
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser17:09
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Stone – Dzingel2:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Paul – Lazar2:29
xG 0.01–0.02 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Pageau4:03
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Ceci2:11
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Borowiecki10:05
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:11
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).