Sat, Feb 20, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 04 | 16 | 324 |
| WSH | 18 | 112 | 212 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:28NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Reid Boucher, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:02WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 19:32NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Reid Boucher · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 9:16WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Michael Latta, Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 11:04NJDReid BoucherAssists: Travis Zajac, John Moore · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 13:55WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 16:02WSHBrooks OrpikGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:19WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min
- P1 11:00NJDJacob Josefson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:22NJDSeth Helgeson: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:24NJDJoseph Blandisi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Henrique – Blandisi11:05
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Kennedy – Josefson – Kalinin9:27
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher10:55
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 16–13goals 3–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta8:10
xG 0.19–0.62 (24%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Moore12:55
xG 0.83–0.38 (69%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Helgeson – Merrill15:08
xG 0.26–0.65 (29%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Greene – Larsson16:27
xG 0.16–0.86 (15%)attempts 10–22goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov12:40
xG 0.82–0.15 (84%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky2:16
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Laich – Richards – Latta6:56
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:59
xG 0.05–0.33 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov14:40
xG 1.01–0.24 (81%)attempts 19–12goals 4–0
- Carlson – Schmidt12:38
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:10
xG 0.06–0.10 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).