Sat, Feb 20, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 6, Arizona Coyotes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 414 | 012 | 214 | 640 |
| ARI | 17 | 110 | 25 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23ARIShane DoanAssists: Brad Richardson, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 1:08STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 4:22STLAlexander SteenAssists: David Backes, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 7:49STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P1 10:06STLCarl GunnarssonAssists: Robby Fabbri, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P2 9:21ARIKevin ConnautonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 0:50ARIMax DomiAssists: Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 7:18STLPatrik BerglundGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall, Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.22 xG5–3
- P3 19:26ARIMax DomiAssists: Kevin Connauton, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
- P3 19:59STLDavid BackesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:42ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:47STLJori Lehtera: Holding2 min
- P2 7:01STLJoel Edmundson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:04ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:04ARIShane Doan: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:01ARIZbynek Michalek: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:04
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Upshall – Backes – Berglund2:31
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves4:35
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri7:52
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko14:49
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 19–11goals 2–2
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson13:06
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk15:46
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Martinook8:43
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi11:08
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Chipchura – Tikhonov – Gaudet7:14
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder12:52
xG 0.36–0.76 (32%)attempts 8–22goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Connauton12:49
xG 0.81–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Stone – Dahlbeck8:53
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Michalek – Connauton6:09
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).