Sun, Feb 21, 2016·TCF Bank Stadium, MinneapolisOutdoor game
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 011 | 112 | 132 |
| MIN | 211 | 212 | 210 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25MINMathew DumbaAssists: Ryan Carter, Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 7:10MINThomas VanekPPGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Mike Reilly · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 2:26MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Erik Haula, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 10:26MINJason PominvilleAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 2:25MINRyan CarterAssists: Marco Scandella, Jarret Stoll · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–5
- P3 12:05CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 13:49MINErik HaulaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:17MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:17CHIPhillip Danault: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:17CHIPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:15CHIJonathan Toews: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:07MINZach Parise: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:08CHIBrent Seabrook: Holding2 min
- P2 6:37CHICorey Crawford: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:15MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:14CHIMichal Rozsival: Interference5 min
- P2 15:14CHIMichal Rozsival: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:48MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:13CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:13MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen3:58
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Teravainen – Rasmussen5:05
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Mashinter – Hinostroza – Rasmussen3:48
xG 0.01–0.26 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin8:48
xG 0.07–0.34 (18%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk3:04
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:00
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rozsival – van Riemsdyk2:45
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Carter – Fontaine8:23
xG 1.38–0.33 (80%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter7:23
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle7:05
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Vanek – Zucker – Granlund4:04
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba9:06
xG 1.60–0.34 (83%)attempts 9–18goals 2–1
- Suter – Spurgeon15:13
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Reilly – Folin11:03
xG 0.62–0.37 (62%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).