Tue, Feb 23, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 16 | 05 | 013 | 05 | 0 | 129 |
| DET | 04 | 111 | 010 | 03 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:18CBJBoone JennerAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, David Savard · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:59DETRiley SheahanSHAssists: Alexey Marchenko · Snap, 0.38 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. DET Riley Sheahan scored
- 4. CBJ Alexander Wennberg stopped
- 5. DET Andreas Athanasiou scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:28DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:22DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
- P2 6:37CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:02DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:37
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel5:39
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg11:04
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Karlsson12:33
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard15:43
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Murray – Jones17:16
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout15:15
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Sheahan – Glendening3:20
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Pulkkinen – Athanasiou3:50
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin2:42
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Pulkkinen – Glendening2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith10:02
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Marchenko14:20
xG 0.50–0.51 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Marchenko – DeKeyser2:39
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).