Tue, Feb 23, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 214 | 09 | 28 | 431 |
| MIN | 012 | 16 | 013 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36NYIMatt MartinAssists: Steve Bernier, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 12:15NYIFrans NielsenPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Anders Lee · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 19:33MINChris PorterAssists: Mikael Granlund, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 2:42NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Anders Lee, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 17:14NYIFrans NielsenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:00NYINikolay Kulemin: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:57NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:55MINJason Pominville: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:51NYIKyle Okposo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:23MINNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:56MINErik Haula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:05NYIJohnny Boychuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:05NYIJohn Tavares: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Kulemin8:30
xG 0.53–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bernier – Martin – Cizikas7:34
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Strome12:24
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Lee – Nelson6:51
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Strait10:48
xG 0.87–0.21 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Leddy2:32
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic16:50
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Porter – Granlund7:24
xG 0.49–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle9:15
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine8:47
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter9:38
xG 0.16–0.55 (23%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:48
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba9:11
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin9:23
xG 0.55–0.64 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).