Wed, Feb 24, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 013 | 115 | 014 | 142 |
| BOS | 110 | 18 | 311 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:00BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 3:12BOSDavid PastrnakGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 4:07PITTom KuhnhacklAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.45 xG1–2
- P3 10:34BOSJimmy HayesAssists: Ryan Spooner, Adam McQuaid · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 14:26BOSLandon FerraroAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 15:27BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:00PITDerrick Pouliot: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 1:42PITScott Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:42BOSLandon Ferraro: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:49BOSLandon Ferraro: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRust – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist11:04
xG 1.01–0.31 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Cullen – Kessel – Hagelin12:08
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 26–8goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:41
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Porter – Wilson – Sheary7:59
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Pouliot14:20
xG 1.00–0.53 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Daley – Dumoulin17:02
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
- Letang – Pouliot2:13
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly12:56
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak12:26
xG 0.62–0.92 (40%)attempts 9–25goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner13:57
xG 0.62–1.11 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Rinaldo – Ferraro – Kemppainen10:34
xG 0.20–0.84 (20%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Miller3:41
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Morrow3:33
xG 0.05–0.04 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug16:10
xG 1.03–1.16 (47%)attempts 15–26goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).