Thu, Feb 25, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 210 | 06 | 226 |
| PHI | 114 | 111 | 16 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:45PHISam GagnerAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 2:02MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mike Reilly · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:46PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Matt Read, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 13:16MINMikael GranlundAssists: Thomas Vanek, Chris Porter · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 3:21PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareGWGAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Ryan White · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:42PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P2 0:56PHINick Schultz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:51MINRyan Carter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:45PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Porter – Granlund9:18
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Coyle3:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Schroeder – Coyle9:06
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine10:01
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Dumba13:31
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin4:00
xG 0.03–0.06 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Folin9:56
xG 0.12–0.57 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Raffl16:03
xG 0.84–0.10 (90%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:15
xG 0.57–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Gagner – Simmonds – Schenn14:50
xG 0.94–0.73 (56%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Read – Cousins – Laughton7:19
xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz15:40
xG 0.80–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere18:58
xG 0.97–0.55 (64%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas12:21
xG 0.16–0.75 (18%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).