Thu, Feb 25, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New Jersey Devils 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 113 | 06 | 126 |
| CBJ | 311 | 27 | 16 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:20CBJNick FolignoAssists: Matt Calvert · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 8:12CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Matt Calvert, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 19:13CBJBrandon SaadAssists: William Karlsson, Matt Calvert · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 1:38NJDReid BoucherAssists: Travis Zajac, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 13:32CBJNick FolignoAssists: David Savard, William Karlsson · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 18:47CBJBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 18:59CBJRene BourqueUnassisted · Snap, 0.32 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:18CBJGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:18NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:14CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:03CBJNick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 4:38CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:37NJDJoseph Blandisi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:55CBJDalton Prout: Interference2 min
- P3 9:22NJDStephen Gionta: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Palmieri – Blandisi5:16
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta10:45
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Zajac – Boucher5:53
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Josefson – Kalinin2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson16:45
xG 1.21–0.85 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Moore12:00
xG 0.30–0.96 (24%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Merrill – Severson16:50
xG 0.71–1.45 (33%)attempts 13–14goals 1–4
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Calvert – Karlsson7:27
xG 0.94–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 3–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg9:35
xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel8:27
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:32
xG 0.67–0.97 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard7:45
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Jones2:27
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Murray – Jones12:22
xG 1.14–0.83 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).