Thu, Feb 25, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Arizona Coyotes 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 07 | 19 | 224 |
| FLA | 17 | 18 | 110 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02ARIShane DoanAssists: Jordan Martinook, Connor Murphy · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 12:04FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Brian Campbell, Derek MacKenzie · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:18FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.34 xG1–2
- P3 4:00FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 14:17ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:02FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:47FLAKyle Rau: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:13ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P2 9:01ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:53ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P3 11:36ARIAntoine Vermette: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:08FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Vermette – Boedker – Martinook2:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Domi3:22
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Boedker – Gaudet4:26
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi5:14
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Stone3:43
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grossmann3:41
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck5:37
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Jokinen – Barkov12:36
xG 0.62–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Smith – Trocheck12:42
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Shaw – Rau8:52
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Thornton – Wilson – McKegg6:32
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Gudbranson13:03
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Petrovic16:43
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Kulikov – Ekblad14:39
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).