Sat, Feb 27, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Arizona Coyotes 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 012 | 17 | 231 |
| PHI | 315 | 09 | 19 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Nick Cousins, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:31ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Max Domi, Shane Doan · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 17:41PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 18:21PHISam GagnerGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 6:33ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 17:15PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:02ARINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P1 14:40ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 14:53PHIMark Streit: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:01ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:34PHIBrandon Manning: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:19ARIKevin Connauton: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:19PHIScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:21PHIChris VandeVelde: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:16ARIMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:09PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Domi10:36
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Chipchura – Tikhonov – Gaudet5:15
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair9:51
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Vermette – Boedker – Martinook11:52
xG 0.52–0.87 (37%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson14:36
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 25–9goals 1–1
- Michalek – Connauton10:03
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Grossmann – Murphy13:15
xG 0.43–1.07 (29%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Couturier – Raffl12:31
xG 0.91–0.43 (68%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Read – Cousins – Laughton8:10
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn11:03
xG 0.31–0.59 (34%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:14
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere15:55
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz14:11
xG 0.71–0.72 (50%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Manning – Gudas11:30
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).