Mon, Feb 29, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 013 | 08 | 16 | 127 |
| NYR | 18 | 05 | 110 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 3:46CBJCam AtkinsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P3 17:12NYRDerek StepanSHGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:35CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:35NYRDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:56CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:19NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner13:09
xG 1.21–0.32 (79%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Karlsson11:26
xG 0.79–0.43 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Clarkson – Boll3:49
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg12:09
xG 0.40–0.89 (31%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Savard15:53
xG 1.18–0.50 (70%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Prout15:57
xG 0.86–0.35 (71%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Murray – Jones20:57
xG 0.74–1.34 (36%)attempts 22–20goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Brassard – Zuccarello4:45
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Stepan – Kreider8:25
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller10:18
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindberg – Hayes8:10
xG 0.45–0.77 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal11:41
xG 0.72–0.62 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh17:41
xG 0.93–0.84 (53%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Klein – Yandle16:04
xG 0.54–1.25 (30%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).