Mon, Feb 29, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Arizona Coyotes 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 012 | 08 | 010 | 030 |
| PIT | 210 | 212 | 211 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42PITPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:46PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 9:47PITChris KunitzAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 11:06PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 18:15PITKris LetangAssists: Olli Maatta, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 18:31PITMatt CullenAssists: Bryan Rust, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:30ARIMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:27PITDerrick Pouliot: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:49PITTom Kuhnhackl: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:49PITCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:38ARISergei Plotnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55ARIZbynek Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:54ARIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P2 16:07ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Domi8:05
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair9:11
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Chipchura – Cunningham – Plotnikov8:51
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Plotnikov2:15
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Dahlbeck3:52
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy6:38
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy6:21
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist9:17
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 4–0
- Cullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl9:51
xG 0.64–0.43 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin10:16
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Porter – Bonino – Wilson8:43
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dumoulin11:56
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta13:43
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 17–12goals 4–0
- Cole – Pouliot12:47
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).