Mon, Feb 29, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 2, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 110 | 06 | 223 |
| SJS | 213 | 19 | 314 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:26MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 15:55SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 3:11SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 12:32MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Paul Byron, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 2:14SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Chris Tierney, Dainius Zubrus · Slap, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 3:37SJSNick SpalingAssists: Logan Couture, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–5
- P3 14:50SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Chris Tierney, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:14MTLVictor Bartley: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42SJSPaul Martin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:39MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:16SJSChris Tierney: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:19SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Brown – McCarron5:52
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:23
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Danault6:37
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Brown – McCarron – de la Rose5:01
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Pateryn16:32
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Markov – Subban16:49
xG 0.56–0.99 (36%)attempts 19–22goals 1–3
- Bartley – Barberio11:53
xG 0.06–1.14 (5%)attempts 5–18goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Nieto11:08
xG 0.67–0.06 (91%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Couture – Spaling – Donskoi9:53
xG 0.73–0.32 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:52
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 3–1
- Zubrus – Tierney – Karlsson10:55
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun15:48
xG 0.91–0.32 (74%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Martin – Burns15:03
xG 1.26–0.68 (65%)attempts 20–14goals 4–1
- Polak – Dillon16:33
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).