Tue, Mar 1, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 014 | 08 | 16 | 241 |
| BUF | 012 | 012 | 18 | 00 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 9:06BUFCal O'ReillyAssists: Sam Reinhart, Mark Pysyk · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 3:48EDMConnor McDavidGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:17EDMIiro Pakarinen: Interference2 min
- P2 10:57BUFJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:11BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:34BUFSam Reinhart: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Yakupov – McDavid13:51
xG 0.89–0.22 (80%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Cracknell – Lander9:42
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kassian – Hall – Draisaitl13:52
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Pakarinen8:58
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Clendening2:38
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clendening – Nurse13:48
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Sekera – Fayne15:08
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Catenacci – Girgensons9:51
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel16:43
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Deslauriers3:37
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Deslauriers – Girgensons3:47
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen17:17
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe18:43
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Pysyk14:25
xG 0.17–0.68 (20%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).