Tue, Mar 1, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 214 | 08 | 333 |
| MIN | 312 | 08 | 310 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:37MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 11:38MINJason PominvilleAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 17:48MINErik HaulaAssists: Mathew Dumba, Marco Scandella · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 3:25COLChris BigrasAssists: Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 12:33COLCody McLeodAssists: Jack Skille, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 5:34MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 18:33MINCharlie CoyleENAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
- P3 19:16MINNino NiederreiterENAssists: Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.78 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:12MINNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:57MINThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:51COLShawn Matthias: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:22COLJack Skille: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:20MINErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P2 19:56COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Skille9:52
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Matthias9:17
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Grigorenko11:34
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Boedker – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:45
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGelinas – Bigras3:41
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Gelinas6:16
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie7:30
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:03
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle12:17
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Vanek – Porter – Granlund9:12
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine7:46
xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:10
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Suter – Scandella2:07
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba17:31
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 16–14goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).