Tue, Mar 1, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 05 | 212 | 322 |
| WPG | 016 | 29 | 07 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48FLAReilly SmithAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Steven Kampfer · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:23WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 7:58WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 1:46FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 3:31FLAJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:45FLAJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:26FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57WPGDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:27FLAVincent Trocheck: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:38WPGJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:44WPGAndrew Copp: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:59FLAErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:13
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Howden – Shaw7:13
xG 0.06–0.28 (17%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hudler – Barkov9:37
xG 0.27–0.75 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Purcell – Bjugstad – Rau10:38
xG 0.17–0.67 (20%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kampfer – Ekblad2:06
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad14:51
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson13:34
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:56
xG 1.01–0.27 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Burmistrov10:04
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp5:18
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Dano8:05
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien14:52
xG 1.09–0.57 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Postma – Chiarot11:08
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba16:47
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).