Thu, Mar 3, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Boston Bruins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 111 | 011 | 227 |
| BOS | 212 | 211 | 02 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:14CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 19:38BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 2:31BOSRyan SpoonerPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 15:24BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: John-Michael Liles, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 19:10CHITomas FleischmannAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:39BOSNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25CHIAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18BOSNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:51CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Mashinter – Rasmussen4:17
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Weise – Teravainen5:29
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desjardins – Teravainen6:14
xG 0.10–0.16 (37%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Toews – Kane2:26
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson10:05
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Ehrhoff – Hjalmarsson4:27
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook6:08
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak15:04
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Connolly – Acciari8:08
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Stempniak – Marchand11:28
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Eriksson – Hayes – Spooner11:05
xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – McQuaid15:26
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Krug16:14
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Chara – Miller18:40
xG 0.42–0.40 (52%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).