Thu, Mar 3, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 5, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 112 | 27 | 16 | 533 |
| NSH | 214 | 114 | 16 | 00 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:00NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Jacob Josefson, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:13NSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 2:39NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Austin Watson, Miikka Salomaki · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 7:23NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Jon Merrill, Sergey Kalinin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 9:13NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: David Schlemko, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 17:56NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:20NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–4
- OT 1:54NJDAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, John Moore · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:05NJDJohn Moore: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:39NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:46NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:40NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:42NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gionta won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Ruutu – Henrique – Smith-Pelly2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin2:07
xG 0.04–0.06 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Smith-Pelly – Boucher2:34
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher11:04
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Moore – Merrill4:33
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Warsofsky3:48
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Moore14:08
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Arvidsson11:18
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen15:13
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg13:18
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Gaustad – Watson – Salomaki8:49
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Bitetto14:35
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Granberg13:40
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi20:57
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 23–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).