Fri, Mar 4, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 011 | 14 | 323 |
| WSH | 08 | 215 | 011 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47NYRJesper FastAssists: Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:37NYRKeith YandlePPAssists: Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 10:58WSHJay BeagleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 19:20WSHT.J. OshiePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 0:17NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:00NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:02WSHJay Beagle: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:02NYRJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:33WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19NYRTanner Glass: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:56WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Stalberg – Lindberg7:55
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller13:07
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Hayes9:22
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Fast10:19
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Yandle16:34
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:00
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Boyle – Yandle3:09
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Winnik – Beagle9:06
xG 0.63–0.03 (95%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson9:09
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:06
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky12:48
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov16:27
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 25–13goals 1–2
- Chorney – Weber11:27
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner16:24
xG 0.45–0.78 (37%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).