Sat, Mar 5, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Florida Panthers 1, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 111 | 013 | 133 |
| ARI | 08 | 27 | 311 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:29ARIJordan MartinookSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:36ARIAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 17:28FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 1:36ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 5:35ARIAlex TanguayAssists: Antoine Vermette, Anthony Duclair · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 19:37ARIAntoine VermetteAssists: Anthony Duclair, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:07ARIAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:22ARIBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:02ARIAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:16FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26ARIBrad Richardson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:04FLAGarrett Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:04ARIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:26FLAJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:27ARIAnthony Duclair: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:54FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:54ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:54FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Howden – Shaw6:40
xG 0.39–0.23 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:31
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Rau – Barkov7:28
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Purcell – Bjugstad8:53
xG 0.24–0.84 (22%)attempts 10–12goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Petrovic9:47
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Ekblad13:35
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Campbell – Gudbranson11:41
xG 0.64–0.70 (48%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Vermette – Duclair8:26
xG 0.82–0.13 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook8:00
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Sekac8:27
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Tanguay – Richardson2:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy16:10
xG 1.19–0.67 (64%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Grossmann – Stone13:38
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Michalek – Connauton11:19
xG 0.03–0.67 (4%)attempts 2–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).