Sun, Mar 6, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 18 | 18 | 225 |
| OTT | 011 | 16 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:45OTTZack SmithAssists: Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 14:05DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Kris Russell, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 17:46DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:15DALKris Russell: Interference2 min
- P1 6:26DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:15OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:21DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:00OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Sceviour – Faksa7:53
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin12:22
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin9:39
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Ritchie10:41
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Nemeth7:46
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Oduya – Russell2:13
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Oduya – Oleksiak3:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau12:05
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Neil – Hoffman – Lazar6:36
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Zibanejad – Paul10:51
xG 0.30–0.30 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Ryan – Dzingel12:25
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson17:16
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson3:38
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:00
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).