Mon, Mar 7, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 416 | 05 | 07 | 14 | 532 |
| FLA | 116 | 218 | 111 | 06 | 451 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Lee Stempniak · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:00BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Matt Beleskey, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 12:22BOSBrett ConnollyAssists: Noel Acciari · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 16:48FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P1 17:25BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Lee Stempniak, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 3:15FLAJiri HudlerAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Erik Gudbranson · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 6:08FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 15:17FLAJiri HudlerAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 4:00BOSLee StempniakGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:50FLAJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:20BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 1:20BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:20FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:20FLAShawn Thornton: Instigator2 min
- P2 1:20FLAShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:59BOSDavid Pastrnak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:29BOSBrett Connolly: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:57BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:00BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:15FLAShawn Thornton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFerraro – Connolly – Acciari2:37
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Stempniak – Marchand11:47
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Connolly7:53
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak5:24
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McQuaid11:42
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Krug2:32
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Trotman – Krug6:55
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck15:07
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:44
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hudler – Bjugstad – Rau9:14
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Thornton – Howden – Shaw4:09
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson18:29
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Kindl – Petrovic9:42
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Kulikov – Ekblad15:55
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).