Mon, Mar 7, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 011 | 014 | 113 | 138 |
| COL | 112 | 115 | 110 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17COLShawn MatthiasAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 5:40COLMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Blake Comeau, Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 5:37COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 8:47ARIBoyd GordonAssists: Sergei Plotnikov, Kevin Connauton · Snap, 0.33 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:46COLMatt Duchene: Holding2 min
- P2 3:41ARISergei Plotnikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:07COLJohn Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:33ARINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P3 18:26COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Domi9:13
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Gordon – Martinook – Plotnikov7:57
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Hanzal – Rieder – Sekac7:32
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Vermette – Duclair11:58
xG 0.48–1.10 (30%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Connauton2:28
xG 0.11–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Connauton – Dahlbeck7:56
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy12:45
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Matthias – Landeskog10:44
xG 0.95–0.20 (83%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Comeau – Boedker – MacKinnon11:22
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille8:21
xG 0.02–0.33 (5%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Grigorenko12:07
xG 0.74–1.12 (40%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson16:18
xG 1.10–0.70 (61%)attempts 19–21goals 0–0
- Redmond – Gelinas9:41
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Holden – Barrie17:58
xG 1.20–1.26 (49%)attempts 23–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).