Tue, Mar 8, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 216 | 14 | 426 |
| BUF | 08 | 29 | 019 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:38NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 6:05NYRJesper FastGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Kevin Klein · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 10:12BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jack Eichel, Chad Johnson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 16:10BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Brian Gionta, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:00NYRJ.T. MillerENAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:36BUFZach Bogosian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 11:30BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 4:30NYRViktor Stalberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:03NYRDerek Stepan: Interference2 min
- P3 19:00BUFMarcus Foligno: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Stalberg – Lindberg12:56
xG 1.36–0.23 (86%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Miller10:05
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Brassard – Kreider – Fast9:58
xG 0.10–0.22 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Hayes9:48
xG 0.11–0.46 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:04
xG 1.19–0.48 (71%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Boyle – Skjei13:22
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle15:37
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 14–5goals 1–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson9:52
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel12:57
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Catenacci6:17
xG 0.01–0.19 (4%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Deslauriers – Girgensons7:22
xG 0.03–0.91 (4%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pysyk9:39
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Bogosian – McCabe16:58
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen16:58
xG 0.13–1.26 (10%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).