Tue, Mar 8, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 19 | 03 | 01 | 1 | 324 |
| CAR | 06 | 218 | 111 | 02 | 2 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58OTTMark StoneAssists: Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:33OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 1:48CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Ryan Murphy · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 6:24CARJay McClementSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 19:25OTTZack SmithSHAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:59CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Rask, Ryan Murphy · Slap, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 2. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 3. CAR Chris Terry stopped
- 4. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 5. CAR Riley Nash scored
- 6. OTT Mark Stone stopped
- 7. CAR Jaccob Slavin scored
- 8. OTT Zack Smith stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:13CARChris Terry: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:13OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:28CARBrendan Woods: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:28OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:10OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:58CARBrad Malone: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:25OTTChris Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:10OTTMike Hoffman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00CARNathan Gerbe: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Paul – Lazar7:32
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad9:23
xG 0.73–0.70 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Smith – Stone – Pageau13:01
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Gomez – Ryan – Dzingel9:13
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci14:21
xG 1.06–0.48 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Kostka – Karlsson3:10
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman2:11
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:58
xG 0.99–0.38 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Malone9:11
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Terry – Woods2:07
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm10:27
xG 0.20–1.00 (17%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJordan – Murphy15:13
xG 1.25–0.44 (74%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Slavin17:44
xG 0.71–0.90 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hanifin13:22
xG 0.27–1.17 (19%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).