Tue, Mar 8, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 116 | 29 | 08 | 00 | 333 |
| MTL | 19 | 27 | 010 | 12 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58DALCody EakinAssists: Jason Demers, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:20MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:17DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Kris Russell, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 0:53MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 3:37MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Greg Pateryn, Lucas Lessio · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 19:00DALAles HemskyAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 1:59MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:12MTLSven Andrighetto: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 12:35DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:49DALJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:19MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Benn – Seguin13:31
xG 0.59–0.09 (87%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin12:10
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin10:53
xG 0.12–0.38 (23%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Faksa7:48
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Nemeth5:36
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers7:08
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Russell17:19
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lessio – Danault8:29
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Matteau10:26
xG 0.44–0.11 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Danault – de la Rose2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto14:41
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 19–21goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Barberio10:39
xG 0.45–0.28 (61%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Emelin – Pateryn18:15
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Markov – Subban19:00
xG 0.35–0.56 (39%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).