Tue, Mar 8, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 26 | 010 | 215 | 431 |
| WPG | 18 | 07 | 18 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 19:19NSHCraig SmithAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 19:30NSHColton SissonsAssists: Colin Wilson, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 8:54NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 13:37WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Marko Dano, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 15:21NSHCraig SmithAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:52WPGPaul Postma: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:02NSHRyan Ellis: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:19WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:53NSHAustin Watson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 19:18WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:15WPGBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:50NSHJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:54WPGTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P3 10:41NSHPetter Granberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Salomaki – Arvidsson6:52
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg6:38
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Wilson – Watson – Sissons4:25
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen8:01
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Bitetto4:12
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Granberg8:11
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm8:44
xG 0.71–0.76 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Scheifele12:56
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Lipon – Copp4:13
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Perreault – Burmistrov – Dano8:16
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
- Thorburn – Lowry – Kosmachuk6:24
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Trouba12:16
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien13:19
xG 0.82–0.67 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Postma – Chiarot6:56
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).