Wed, Mar 9, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 19 | 15 | 02 | 0 | 327 |
| TOR | 18 | 111 | 113 | 04 | 1 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08NYIJohn TavaresUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 11:27TORZach HymanAssists: Colin Greening, Martin Marincin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 10:45TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 12:54NYINick LeddyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 14:41NYIRyan StromeAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 18:47TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Peter Holland stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. TOR PA Parenteau stopped
- 4. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 5. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 7. TOR Nikita Soshnikov scored
- 8. NYI Cal Clutterbuck stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 8:34TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:48NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:04NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:18TORBen Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:52NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:25NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:25TORZach Hyman: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Bailey – Tavares4:59
xG 0.78–0.04 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nelson – Strome6:35
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey6:03
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Bailey – Lee2:20
xG 0.13–0.11 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Pulock11:10
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Hickey – Hamonic17:45
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy18:18
xG 0.25–1.36 (15%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Greening – Smith10:26
xG 0.61–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grabner – Holland8:02
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Hyman – Nylander9:17
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov13:43
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Rielly19:48
xG 0.75–0.53 (58%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Carrick19:10
xG 1.06–1.12 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- Brennan – Corrado8:47
xG 0.12–0.31 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).