Wed, Mar 9, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 04 | 213 | 00 | 226 |
| CGY | 214 | 010 | 09 | 11 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:44CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 7:44NSHAnthony BitettoAssists: Mike Fisher, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 18:42NSHMike FisherAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, James Neal · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:12CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:30CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P1 14:39NSHMike Fisher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:53CGYMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:06NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47NSHRyan Ellis: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:47CGYLance Bouma: Holding2 min
- P2 19:51NSHJames Neal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Salomaki – Arvidsson6:04
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Fisher – Neal – Arvidsson3:01
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Watson – Sissons3:57
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen5:43
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Granberg10:38
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Ellis – Bitetto10:10
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi19:18
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:50
xG 0.97–0.16 (86%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Hathaway6:15
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris4:49
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Colborne – Bouma – Bennett3:37
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:45
xG 0.91–0.41 (69%)attempts 18–20goals 2–1
- Jokipakka – Wotherspoon2:59
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Nakladal5:51
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).