Wed, Mar 9, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 010 | 213 | 09 | 02 | 234 |
| VAN | 015 | 26 | 06 | 14 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:57ARITobias RiederPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:41ARIKevin ConnautonAssists: Anthony Duclair, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 11:55VANRadim VrbataAssists: Yannick Weber · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 17:38VANLuca SbisaAssists: Ben Hutton, Sven Baertschi · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:42VANMarkus GranlundGWGAssists: Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:47ARIAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:01ARINicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:34ARIShane Doan: Holding2 min
- P2 2:15VANAlex Biega: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:42ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Martinook – Plotnikov8:40
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Tikhonov – Rieder12:39
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Vermette – Duclair12:07
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Domi13:15
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Murphy19:22
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Grossmann – Stone17:04
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck11:05
xG 0.39–0.93 (29%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDorsett – Gaunce – Horvat9:40
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Etem – Granlund – Baertschi5:16
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Granlund – Baertschi3:57
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Vey – Etem4:08
xG 0.11–0.17 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber17:37
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Biega – Bartkowski14:32
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Hutton14:16
xG 0.06–0.79 (7%)attempts 5–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).