Fri, Mar 11, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 17 | 310 | 426 |
| CGY | 08 | 18 | 09 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:21CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 15:01ARIBoyd GordonSHAssists: Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 3:15ARIAntoine VermettePPGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Shane Doan · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 14:18ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Shane Doan, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 18:19ARIBrad RichardsonENAssists: Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:42ARIMax Domi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:26CGYJakub Nakladal: Interference2 min
- P2 6:18CGYMicheal Ferland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:42ARIAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:21CGYJyrki Jokipakka: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:34CGYSean Monahan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:02ARIAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Tikhonov – Rieder11:13
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Domi10:48
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gordon – Martinook – Plotnikov11:15
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Duclair8:40
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Dahlbeck11:47
xG 0.17–0.06 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Stone15:11
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Connauton – Murphy16:34
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Agostino9:51
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Hathaway8:08
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:59
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Colborne – Bouma – Jooris7:09
xG 0.02–0.46 (5%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Giordano2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Hamilton2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton14:40
xG 0.64–0.71 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).