Sat, Mar 12, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 19 | 12 | 422 |
| MTL | 16 | 011 | 014 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52MINNino NiederreiterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 12:13MTLMark BarberioAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 13:20MINMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 11:49MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–1
- P3 18:21MINErik HaulaENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:38MINNate Prosser: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:56MTLMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34MINNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:37MTLPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Schroeder – Granlund9:24
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Stoll – Jones – Carter7:36
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine10:04
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle12:25
xG 0.11–1.19 (8%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Brodin2:01
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin2:55
xG 0.08–0.26 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin13:08
xG 0.17–0.52 (25%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Mitchell – Byron4:21
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto15:34
xG 0.51–0.21 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Lessio – Danault3:45
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Danault – de la Rose3:18
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Barberio18:29
xG 0.89–0.38 (70%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- Emelin – Pateryn14:22
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Bartley – Dietz10:03
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).