Sat, Mar 12, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 4, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 15 | 212 | 112 | 429 |
| EDM | 012 | 015 | 017 | 044 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:26ARIViktor TikhonovGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:56ARIAntoine VermetteAssists: Shane Doan, Michael Stone · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 10:17ARIAlex TanguayPPAssists: Michael Stone, Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 9:34ARIAntoine VermetteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:59EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:59ARIMartin Hanzal: Embellishment2 min
- P1 13:55EDMPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:55ARIMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:15ARIJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:15EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:56ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:24ARIAnthony Duclair: Interference2 min
- P2 8:24EDMJordan Eberle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:31EDMAdam Cracknell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:44ARIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:17EDMPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:17ARIKevin Connauton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:17EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:41ARINicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P3 19:41EDMNail Yakupov: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Tikhonov – Rieder8:49
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Gordon – Martinook – Plotnikov8:47
xG 0.24–0.27 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Duclair7:28
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Domi10:33
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Dahlbeck10:45
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Connauton – Murphy14:15
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Grossmann – Stone15:17
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKorpikoski – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov7:37
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Maroon – Eberle – Draisaitl6:22
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Letestu – Pakarinen5:01
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – McDavid5:16
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReinhart – Oesterle13:58
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Clendening12:31
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Sekera – Oesterle2:52
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).